samedi 29 octobre 2011

West: the scenario of decline?

As leaders of the European Union, overwhelmed by the debt crisis, continue to get by French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for "draw upon the emerging" (China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, India) save the euro area. A proposal surreal poses a serious question of the supremacy of the West over the world. Still, the West, if it were to collapse, lead many nations in its turmoil.

As leaders of the European Union, overwhelmed by the debt crisis, continue to get by like sharks caught in a net, a proposal by President Sarkozy should we put the red flag. It calls for "draw upon the emerging" (China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, India) to save the euro area. There are still a few years, this idea would have seemed so surreal these five countries have suffered the bashing in the media and the condescension of Western leaders. This degraded image still dominates the public imagination in many Western countries.

Indeed, what do we really know of China other than decent working conditions of slavery and the massive violations of human rights? What do we really know other than Russia's oligarchs, the mafia and alcoholism? What is known from Brazil (besides football) other than the favelas malfamées and crime? What is known of South Africa (except Mandela) other than the ravages of AIDS and crime in the streets of Johannesburg? What is known in India other than misery in the streets of Bombay?

Treatment very unfair to those on an objective look at these countries and appreciate their potential and their development at fair value. The current crisis will have at least had the merit of bringing everyone to a minimum of modesty.

But the change of view and mutual respect will not be enough to save the West is facing a crisis severe enough that the question of its supremacy over the rest of the world poses serious. Because after dominating the world for over five centuries, Westerners now appear out of breath.

         And it can not be otherwise. Indeed, to rule the world, Westerners began to monopolize almost all the resources of the peoples of the South from slavery, colonization and the neo-colonialism. Pillage which enabled them to amass huge financial resources. They have developed a technology inaccessible to the South and innovated a furious pace. But they have realized this and many of them have caught up and are now playing in the same court that the Western powers.

         What Westerners had probably the most precious is their advanced technology and a favorable international balance of power through which they could procure raw materials at low prices and resell finished goods at exorbitant prices, making comfortable margins well . The oil shocks, the rise of nationalism in the countries producing raw materials and competition from emerging powers have come to ruin the dream in the West of unlimited growth.

To compensate for the shortfall, Western countries began to be financed by debt. A debt they could not repay. Because for a debt, it must produce enough wealth to get a living and generate significant margins. On the open market to international competition, you must submit a quality product at the best price. Quality, Westerners have excelled for some time before being caught. On price, they seem to have permanently lost the game. A worker earns 1500 euro European to make the product equivalent to that produced by the Chinese worker paid 200 euro, both sold on the same international market. The fight is already lost.

Meanwhile, 10% of Western assets are unemployed plus the economically inactive (aged, sick, children). 90% of assets that are already losing ground in international competition must still feed the unemployed and inactive, the house, treat, educate (children) or provide them with financial resources (unemployment benefits, pensions, daily allowances for the sick). Those assets that fulfill these social charges and taxes already earn enough for themselves and must borrow to pay including their homes and cars. Household debt and debt-distressed countries. It's a doomed system.

All indications are that the West goes straight into the wall. But he has a trump card that can change everything: military power. Indeed, during the five centuries of Western domination of the world, Europe and North America are equipped with an unprecedented military power. It would be naive to imagine that countries as militarized will submit easily to the demands of their creditors. In international relations, too often, the balance of power is right. The difference is a fine line between paying to be stronger than and be robbed.
Already we hear that the United States who are drowning in 14, 000 billion in debt does not repay the debt. It is the same for France, which is heading inexorably towards the 2000 billion euros of debt. And it is not the only Western country in over my head. Greece has already set the tone: its creditors will have to remove half of its debt. A similar approach from the United States and is the ruin of millions of savers in the world, the Chinese in particular. Wars break out for less than that!

But the risk of a war can be ruled out given the interdependence of the economies of major powers, including emerging markets, and the Apocalypse that everyone is aware in case of armed conflict between nuclear powers.

If the "peace of the brave" is the most credible scenario between nuclear powers, the "small country" them, had better take, especially those with strategic resources. These "great powers" when they have finished to scam emerging and ruining millions of investors that debt with "non-refundable," he fold back of small countries to put in cross-section set.
         Intervention in Iraq, Libya, or Ivory Coast, have no other rational explanation for the willingness of Westerners to relocate in strategic areas to relax and plant their flag first.
Hard to imagine how far will this new adventure of predation. The standard of human rights is a pitch which should laugh if it were not dead men. If it was so relevant, long time ago that freedom and peace have up residence in North Korea and Somalia.

Boniface-Kakule Musavuli*

Born in North Kivu in 1972. Former representative of the African Association for the Defence of Human Rights (ASADHO-Beni), Democratic Republic of Congo. Located in the Rhône-Alpes in France, he studied law at the University of Lyon 2-Lumière.

Article in AgoraVox
October 28, 2011.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire